Formulas
Pace = time ÷ distance
Predicted time = known time × (new distance ÷ known distance)1.06
The prediction formula was published by Peter Riegel in 1981 and is still used by coaches worldwide.
Common pace targets
| Goal | Pace per km |
|---|---|
| 5 km in 30 minutes | 6:00 |
| 10 km in 60 minutes | 6:00 |
| 10 km in 50 minutes | 5:00 |
| Half marathon in 2 hours | 5:41 |
| Marathon in 4 hours | 5:41 |
Frequently asked questions
What is a good 5K time for beginners?
Many beginners finish 5 km in 30–40 minutes. Simply finishing is a great first goal.
How accurate are race predictions?
They work best between similar distances and when you have trained for the longer race.
Sources
- Riegel PS. Athletic records and human endurance. American Scientist, 1981.
Medical disclaimer: This calculator gives estimates for general information only. It is not a diagnosis or a substitute for advice from a doctor or registered dietitian. Please consult a healthcare professional before making changes to your diet, exercise or medicines, especially if you are pregnant, have a medical condition or take regular medication.
Last updated: 20 October 2026. Read our editorial policy.
